Hardly a National Election When Six States Decide Who Wins the White House

By Earl Ofari Hutchinson

Let’s crunch some numbers in the 2016 presidential election. Trump and rival Hillary Clinton made a combined 250 plus official campaign vote trips to Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. This was exactly 250 plus more visits than they made to California and New York, the nation’s most populist states. Eighteen states got no visits from either of them. There was no need. Long before the first vote was cast, voters in the eighteen states and their Electoral College votes had already been earmarked for either Clinton or Trump. They were rock solid, unshakeable either GOP or Democratic majority states that were safely in the candidate’s respective bags.

The Electoral College isn’t the only reason national elections aren’t really national. And why a handful of states determine the national winner out of all proportion to their population and location.

Wisconsin and Michigan have a combined 36 electoral votes, while New York and California dwarf them with their massive number of electoral votes. Yet California and New York got a paltry two presidential visits, and both were from Clinton.

The six presidential maker states also have a fairly even sized mix of Democrat, Republican, and independents. However, that must be fine-tuned, and Trump showed how. He pitched a relatively small narrow base of voters in the suburbs and rural parts of the six states with his quasi-economic populist, full throated race and immigrant bashing, America first, demagogic campaign. This was just enough to ensure that these voters stormed the polls and gave him the razor edge he needed win several of these states. This tact would not have worked if these voters were in any of the other states that were either reliably Democrat or Republican.

Trump will do the same thing again in the 2020 presidential campaign. The difference this time is that his Democratic presidential rival will do the same and try to peel off some of the Trump base while trying to ramp up the vote among blacks, Hispanics, young persons, and suburban college educated women, to offset the Trump crowd. The problem with this is that it still gives outsize power to these six states and effectively marginalizes the other forty-four.

This has dire consequences. It makes eligible voters even less inclined to make any effort to go to the polls. The thinking being what difference does it make, the game is already rigged, and my vote doesn’t count. Appeals that there’s more at stake in a presidential election than just the presidency, but that lots of local and state offices and ballot initiatives are just as important, and votes for them count too flop when the mass media and public fixate on the race to the White House. This malaise hurts Democrats far more than Republicans because their voter base is far more diverse, eclectic, and with many younger voters, fickle.

It stokes resentment. It’s repeatedly said that it’s outrageous that six states are the shot callers in a national election. This makes a mockery of the pretense that the popular vote is what elections should be about. If a less educated white rural or blue-collar voter can get all the attention from Trump and even a Democratic presidential candidate, the message is that their vote in six states means everything, while a vote in the other forty-four states is means nothing.

The other problem is race. It’s not that the six states are the whitest states in the union. That distinction goes to states such as Vermont or Idaho. But both states are either lock down GOP or Democratic states. It’s the sometime subtle, sometimes blatant, racial pandering to certain voters in the six states that’s the problem.

The hard reality is that the GOP could not have been competitive during the 2008, 2012 and the 2016 presidential campaigns without the bail out from less educated white male voters. Much has been made since then that they are a dwindling percent of the electorate, and that Hispanics, Asian, black, young, and women voters will permanently tip the balance of political power to the Democrats in coming national elections. It’s true that blue collar white voters have shrunk from more than half of the nation’s voters to less than forty percent. The assumption based solely on this slide and the increased minority population numbers and regional demographic changes is that the GOP’s white vote strategy is doomed to fail. This ignores three major factors in voting patterns. Elections are usually won by candidates with a solid, and impassioned core of bloc voters. White males, particularly older white males, vote consistently and faithfully. And they vote in a far greater percentage than Hispanics and blacks.

This tells much why six states with larger than life numbers of these voters are the undisputed kingmakers in national politics. That won’t change in 2020.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. He is the author of Who Can Beat Trump?: America’s Choice 2020https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07KVM86C6 He is a weekly co-host of the Al Sharpton Show on Radio One. He is the host of the weekly Hutchinson Report on KPFK 90.7 FM Los Angeles and the Pacifica Network.

Photo credit: Earl Ofari Hutchinson

October 16, 2023, HOUSTON, TX – Congressional Candidate Amanda Edwards has raised over $1 million in less than 4 months, a substantial sum that helps bolster the frontrunner status of the former At-Large Houston City Council Member in her bid for U.S. Congress. Edwards raised over $433,000 in Q3 of 2023. This strong Q3 report expands on a successful Q2 where Edwards announced just 11 days after declaring her candidacy that she had raised over $600,000. With over $829,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of the September 30th financial reporting period, Edwards proves again that she is the clear frontrunner in the race. “I am beyond grateful for the strong outpouring of support that will help me to win this race and serve the incredible people of the 18th Congressional District,” said Edwards. “We are at a critical juncture in our nation’s trajectory, and we need to send servant leaders to Congress who can deliver the results the community deserves. The strong support from our supporters will help us to cultivate an 18th Congressional District where everyone in it can thrive.” Edwards said. “Amanda understands the challenges that the hard-working folks of the 18th Congressional District face because she has never lost sight of who she is or where she comes from; she was born and raised right here in the 18th Congressional District of Houston,” said Kathryn McNiel, spokesperson for Edwards’ campaign. Edwards has been endorsed by Higher Heights PAC, Collective PAC, Krimson PAC, and the Brady PAC. She has also been supported by Beto O’Rourke, among many others. About Amanda: Amanda is a native Houstonian, attorney and former At-Large Houston City Council Member. Amanda is a graduate of Eisenhower High School in Aldine ISD. Edwards earned a B.A. from Emory University and a J.D. from Harvard Law School. Edwards practiced law at Vinson & Elkins LLP and Bracewell LLP before entering public service. Edwards is a life-long member of St. Monica Catholic Church in Acres Homes. For more information, please visit www.edwardsforhouston.com

As September 13th rolls around, we extend our warmest birthday wishes to the creative powerhouse, Tyler Perry, a man whose indomitable spirit and groundbreaking work have left an indelible mark on the world of entertainment. With his multifaceted talents as an actor, playwright, screenwriter, producer, and director, Tyler Perry has not only entertained but also inspired audiences worldwide, particularly within the African-American community, where his influence and role have been nothing short of powerful. Born in New Orleans, Louisiana, in 1969, Tyler Perry’s journey to stardom was a path riddled with adversity. Raised in a turbulent household, he found refuge in writing, using it as a therapeutic outlet. This period of introspection gave rise to one of his most iconic creations, Madea, a vivacious, no-nonsense grandmother who would later become a beloved figure in Perry’s works, offering a unique blend of humor and profound life lessons. Despite facing numerous challenges, including rejection and financial struggles, Perry’s determination and unwavering belief in his abilities propelled him forward. In 1992, he staged his first play, “I Know I’ve Been Changed,” which, although met with limited success, was a pivotal moment in his career. Unfazed by initial setbacks, Perry continued to hone his craft, and by 1998, he had successfully produced a string of stage plays that showcased his storytelling prowess.

Calling all teenage student-athletes! If you have dreams of playing college soccer and wish to represent an HBCU, the HBCU ID Camp is your golden opportunity. From 8 am to 5 pm on November 11-12, Houston Sports Park will transform into a hub for aspiring male and female soccer players. Coaches from HBCUs across the nation will be present to evaluate, scout, and offer valuable feedback. Moreover, they might even spot the next soccer prodigy to join their collegiate soccer programs. This camp is not just about honing your soccer skills but also a chance to connect with the HBCU soccer community. You’ll learn the ins and outs of what it takes to excel on the field and in the classroom, which is crucial for a college athlete. The HBCU ID Camp is an excellent platform to network with coaches, learn from experienced athletes, and take the first steps toward your college soccer journey. To secure your spot at this incredible event, don’t forget to register [here](insert registration link). Space is limited to 120 participants, so make sure to reserve your place before it’s too late. It’s time to turn your dreams of playing college soccer into a reality.

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